Understanding the Decline in Relationships Among Gen Z: Economic, Social, and Technological Factors

Money & Macro

Introduction [00:00]

• There is a global trend of fewer Gen Z individuals forming relationships, impacting birth rates and the global economy.

  

• Gen Z's love crisis is causing birth rates to plummet even faster than they were already declining.

  

• Sociologists, psychologists, and economists are studying this phenomenon to understand its causes.
• The video identifies three main trends explaining why Gen Z struggles to find love.

A Brief History of Marriage and Relationships [01:00]

• Marriage as a Necessity:
  • For previous generations (e.g., grandparents), marriage was a societal expectation linked to adulthood, respectability, and economic sense.
  • Men needed wives for household management to support full-time work.
  • Women needed husbands for financial stability, as paid work access was limited.
  • Remaining single carried significant social stigma, especially for women (e.g., "spinster," "old maid").
  • Limited contraception meant marriage was the primary safe way for an active sex life.
• Changing Dynamics Post-WWII:
  • Economic Improvements: Inventions like dishwashers, vacuum cleaners, and washing machines reduced household labor demands.
  • Increased Services: Greater household wealth and government services provided access to childcare, cleaning help, and other services.
  • Contraception and Abortion: The introduction of contraception and the liberalization of abortion decoupled sex life from marriage, making it a choice rather than a necessity.
• Shift in Relationship Trends:
  • Marriage rates began to fall in the United States.

    

  • Initially, this was offset by an increase in cohabitation without marriage, as people still desired stable relationships for happiness and health.
  • More recently, young people are not just marrying less but also struggling to find partners in general, a trend that cannot be explained solely by historical economic and social changes.

Labor Market Mismatch [04:54]

• Assortative Mating:
  • Both men and women tend to prefer partners with similar educational and socioeconomic backgrounds.
  • The "marriage market" is often split into college-educated and non-college-educated segments.

    

• Trends in College Education:
  • Historically, there were more college-educated men (e.g., 1970).
  • This trend has reversed globally, with significantly more college-educated women than men in countries like the UK, Korea, and Spain.

    

  • Theoretically, fewer college-educated men should lead to fewer couples among this group.
  • However, marriage rates for college-educated women in the US have remained stable, suggesting a different dynamic.
• "Marrying Down" Trend:
  • Research suggests college-educated women are increasingly willing to "marry down" educationally.

    

  • This means they are marrying the most successful non-college-educated men, who have seen increased earnings over time. Economically, this is not "marrying down."

    

  • This leaves a growing number of non-college-educated men, whose earnings are declining, with fewer prospects.
  • Consequently, non-college-educated women are increasingly remaining single because they are less willing to "marry down" and seek economic stability in a partnership.

    

• Labor Force Participation:
  • While women have increasingly joined the labor force, non-college-educated men, especially those without a high school diploma, have increasingly dropped out.

    

    

  • This phenomenon is attributed to the shift from manufacturing-based to service-based economies.
  • Service and care jobs have benefited non-college-educated women.
  • The disappearance of manufacturing jobs has negatively impacted non-college-educated men.
  • This withdrawal of non-college-educated men from the labor market creates a group unattractive to non-college-educated women seeking economic stability.

    

• Global Evidence:
  • Data from the US confirms that non-college-educated men and women are driving the decline in marriages.
  • Finnish research in 2024 shows that less educated individuals (both men and women) are less likely to be in relationships compared to their more educated counterparts.

    

• Core Takeaway: When boys struggle in school, find work difficult, and fail to adapt to a care-focused economy, both less educated men and women are more likely to remain single.

Housing Affordability [09:44]

• Impact in China:
  • Despite a thriving manufacturing sector, China's marriage rates have dropped, hitting a low in 2024.

    

    

  • A 2011 survey found that approximately 70% of Chinese women consider homeownership a prerequisite for marriage.
  • A 1% increase in Chinese house prices correlated with a 0.31% fall in marriage rates.
  • This explains why marriage rates in China rapidly fell after 2013 when house prices surged, even as manufacturing jobs increased.

    

• Global Relevance:
  • Similar negative effects of house prices on marriage rates have been observed in Spain and Korea, though these effects were generally small.
  • Declining couple formation in rural China and the US, where housing is more affordable, suggests housing is only a partial explanation.

Smartphone Addiction and Digital Media [10:48]

• Gen Z and Digital Media:
  • Gen Z is the first generation to grow up with smartphones and pervasive social media throughout high school and university.
• Increased Solitude:
  • Research shows Gen Z spends significantly more time alone at a young age compared to previous generations, a trend observed in the US, UK, and Europe.

    

• Personality Changes:
  • Gen Z's personality traits are changing more rapidly than older generations across four of the "Big Five" personality traits:
    1. Lower Conscientiousness: Since 2016, Gen Z is becoming less conscientious (self-discipline, reliability, follow-through), making it harder to signal stability and commitment in relationships.
    2. Higher Neuroticism: Gen Z is more neurotic, and increasingly so since 2017. This means greater anxiety, mood swings, and sensitivity to rejection, which hinders dating.
    3. Lower Agreeableness: Gen Z is less agreeable and has become significantly so since 2016. Lower agreeableness can lead to competitive, critical, or self-focused behavior, undermining trust and warmth in new relationships.
    4. Lower Extroversion: After starting similarly extroverted to other generations, Gen Z's extroversion rapidly declined since the pandemic. Less extroversion translates to less initiative in approaching others, impeding the formation of new partnerships.

       

• Impact on Relationships:
  • Increased screen time leads to fewer opportunities to meet suitable partners in person.
  • It also hinders the development of crucial social skills needed for lasting relationships.
  • Evidence shows couples are meeting less in person, with a growing share meeting online.

    

  • However, young people are increasingly abandoning dating apps due to frustration.

    

  • In regions with low internet use among women (e.g., South Asia), marriage rates remain high and stable, suggesting a link between digital media and relationship formation.

    

• Scientific Debate:
  • The scientific debate on social media's impact on mental health is ongoing, with correlation not equating to causation.
  • While rising anxiety, depression, loneliness, and personality changes coincide with smartphone adoption and COVID-19 lockdowns, more evidence is needed to clarify mechanisms, magnitudes, and global versus country-specific patterns.

Conclusion [15:12]

• Social sciences do not offer a definitive answer for why Gen Z struggles to find love, but striking patterns have emerged.
• Key Factors in the Decline:
  • Marriage ceased to be a social or economic necessity, leading to initial declines.
  • This was first offset by cohabitation but worsened for Gen Z due to:
    1. Men falling behind in education and dropping out of the labor market.
    2. Rising house prices.
    3. The pervasive influence of smartphones and addictive social media.

       

• Most Significant Factor: The speaker personally believes the most evidence points to the labor market mismatch, where less educated men and women are driving the trend, exacerbated by more women being educated and more men leaving the labor force.
• Societal Implications:
  • This trend is a concern for governments globally, not only due to reduced happiness but also because fewer couples mean lower birth rates, contributing to the demographic crisis.
• Proposed Solutions:
  1. Governments should focus on keeping boys in the education system.
  2. Ensure housing remains affordable.
  3. Experiment with limiting smartphone and social media use in schools and at home while promoting face-to-face interactions for all ages.