Why Iran Has Few Allies Among its Neighbors in the Middle East

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Iran's Lack of Allies Among its Neighbors [00:00]

The video sets a hypothetical scenario where Iran is attacked and its neighbors offer no defense. This forms the basis for exploring the historical, cultural, and diplomatic factors that explain Iran's limited regional alliances. The analysis focuses on immediate neighbors, excluding Israel, distant/small countries, and Russia.

The Religious Background [02:45]

Religion is a cornerstone of Iran's identity and a key factor in its regional relations.

• Predominantly Shia Nation: Iran is primarily a Shia Muslim country [02:55].
• Global Minority Status: Shia Islam accounts for an estimated 10-15% of the world's Muslim population, significantly smaller than Sunni Islam, which makes up 85-90% [03:10].
• Shia-Majority Countries: Globally, only four countries are predominantly Shia: Iran, Azerbaijan, Iraq, and Bahrain [03:42].
• Iran's Large Shia Population: Iran is home to the largest single Shia population, with 60-70 million people, representing about 40% of all Shias worldwide [04:27].
• Historical Religious Schism: The fundamental split between Sunni and Shia Islam dates back to the 7th century over the succession of Prophet Muhammad [04:49].
  • Sunni Succession: Sunnis believed in leadership by elected caliphs, starting with Abu Bakr, Muhammad's close friend and father-in-law [05:00, 05:29].
  • Shia Succession: Shias believed leadership should remain within Muhammad's family, explicitly naming Ali ibn Abi Talib, his cousin and son-in-law, as his rightful successor [05:11, 05:33].
  • Battle of Karbala (680 CE): The killing of Husayn ibn Ali (Ali's son and Muhammad's grandson) by Sunni Umayyad forces at the Battle of Karbala solidified this schism and remains a deeply emotional event for Shias [06:09].
• Shia as State Religion:
  • Safavid Empire (16th Century): Shia Islam first became a state religion with the rise of the Persian Safavid Empire [06:55].
  • 1979 Islamic Revolution: Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution established Shia Islam as its state religion, positioning Iran as a central power in the Shia world [07:05].
• Regional Implications: This religious distinctiveness has historically and currently created friction with Sunni-majority governments, exacerbated by Iran's intervention through Shia militant groups [07:49].

Saudi Arabia: The Arch-Rival (Score: 0/10) [08:06]

Saudi Arabia is the primary theological and political power in the Sunni Muslim world and Iran's leading regional rival.

• Sunni Leadership: Saudi Arabia is the traditional birthplace of Islam and the leading theological and political power in Sunni Islam [08:25].
• Monarchy vs. Election: While Sunni Islam emphasizes elected leadership, Saudi Arabia remains an absolute monarchy, contrasting with Iran's theocratic government [08:42].
• International Alliances: Saudi Arabia is a key ally of the United States and many Western nations [10:07]. Iran, conversely, positions itself as a challenger to Western influence and has aligned with Russia [10:07].
• "Cold War of the Middle East": The rivalry between Riyadh and Tehran is often characterized as a "Cold War," involving efforts to expand influence through diplomacy, economic support, and military partnerships without direct conflict [10:19].
  • Proxy Conflicts: Both nations engage in proxy wars across the region, notably in Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon, backing opposing factions [10:50, 10:54, 11:02].
  • Exclusion from Alliances: Iran is excluded from key Saudi-led regional blocs, such as the Arab League, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and proposed military alliances [11:29, 11:49].
• Diplomatic Tensions:
  • Execution of Shia Cleric: Relations deteriorated significantly in 2016 following Saudi Arabia's controversial execution of prominent Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr. This sparked large protests in Iran, leading to the ransacking of Saudi diplomatic missions in Tehran and Mashhad [11:59, 12:06].
  • Failed Reconciliation (Hypothetical): While there were attempts at reconciliation in 2023, mediated by China, these proved fragile and quickly broke down with the hypothetical outbreak of conflict in February 2026 [12:17, 12:40].
• 2026 Hostilities (Hypothetical): Iran responded to initial US-Israeli strikes by launching missile and drone attacks across the Middle East, targeting US bases and diplomatic sites, including on Saudi territory [12:48, 12:50, 12:54].
• Dependability Score: Given the deep-seated rivalry, Saudi Arabia would provide no defense for Iran (0/10) [13:08].

Turkey: Competitive Coexistence (Score: 2/10) [13:11]

Turkey, a major Sunni power and NATO member, maintains a complex relationship with Iran, marked by both cooperation and competition for regional influence.

• Geopolitical Position: Turkey, while not strictly within the Middle East, plays a substantial role in regional developments [13:13].
• Cooperation and Competition: Iran and Turkey generally engage in trade and tactical coordination, keeping diplomatic channels open [13:26]. However, they often back opposing sides in regional conflicts and compete for influence across the Middle East and Caucasus [13:33, 13:40].
• Kurdish Question: Both nations share a concern regarding Kurdish separatism on their respective territories. Turkey focuses on the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and its affiliates in Iraq and Syria, while Iran is concerned about its domestic Iranian Kurdish opposition [15:37, 15:47, 15:51].
• Syrian Civil War: The Syrian Civil War created a significant fault line. Turkey actively opposed Bashar Al-Assad, while Iran heavily intervened to keep him in power [14:21]. The hypothetical defeat of Assad's regime in December 2024 (with Turkish backing) was a major setback for Iran in the region [14:28, 14:37].
• Iraqi Operations: Turkey's military operations in northern Iraq and its pursuit of closer cooperation with Baghdad sometimes intersect uncomfortably with Iranian interests [14:50].
• NATO Alignment: Turkey is a firm member of NATO, aligning it with Western security systems. While it may object to American and Israeli actions, its broader Western ties limit its potential support for Iran [16:21].
• 2026 Hostilities (Hypothetical): Turkey positioned itself as a diplomatic actor, condemning attacks and warning against regional destabilization, but remained firmly outside direct support for Iran [16:07, 16:17].
• Dependability Score: Turkey would offer limited, if any, support to Iran (2/10) [16:33, 16:48].

Azerbaijan: Shia Neighbor, Tricky Relations (Score: 0/10) [16:51]

Despite being a fellow Shia-majority nation sharing a border and cultural elements, Azerbaijan's relationship with Iran is deeply complex and often contentious.

• Turkic Nationalism & Alliances: Azerbaijan is a nationalist, Turkic-speaking country with close partnerships with Turkey [17:22].
• Ties with Israel: Azerbaijan maintains good relations with Israel and has regularly purchased weapons from Iran's primary sworn enemy [17:29]. Iran views this as deeply problematic, worrying that Azerbaijan could serve as a base for Israeli intelligence or even military attacks [17:39].
• Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: Rounds of conflict in 2020 and 2023 between Azerbaijan and Armenia (Iran's closest regional ally) over Nagorno-Karabakh reshaped the regional landscape [17:45, 17:55]. A subsequent peace agreement included the possibility of a rail corridor across southern Armenia, directly linking Azerbaijan and Turkey [17:59]. Iran vocally opposed this, fearing it would sever its own access to Eurasian trade routes and deepen its isolation amidst sanctions [18:09, 18:21].
• Ethnic Azeri Population in Iran: Iran has a large Azeri population (15-20 million), primarily in its northwest region, bordering Azerbaijan [18:28]. Iran views with suspicion any potential Azeri nationalist movements that could lead to secession, especially considering that Iranian Azeris briefly succeeded in establishing an autonomous government in the 1940s with Soviet assistance [18:47, 18:54].
• Diplomatic Incidents: Relations have been "frosty," exemplified by an armed attack on Azerbaijan's embassy in Tehran in January 2023, which Azerbaijan termed terrorism and Iran described as a personal dispute [19:02, 19:12].
• Dependability Score: Due to its strong alliances with Turkey and Israel, combined with Iran's internal ethnic concerns, Azerbaijan would offer no support to Iran (0/10) [19:44, 19:51].

United Arab Emirates: Economic Pragmatism (Score: 3/10) [19:56]

The UAE, a significant regional trade hub, navigates a complex relationship with Iran, balancing extensive economic ties with security concerns and its alliances.

• Trade Gateway: The UAE serves as a crucial commercial hub for Iran, providing access to goods and finance, sometimes through legal channels and sometimes through unofficial routes, helping Iran mitigate the impact of international sanctions [20:01, 20:28].
• Iranian Diaspora: A large Iranian diaspora resides in the UAE, estimated at over 500,000 people (around 8% of the UAE's resident population) [20:20, 20:26].
• Territorial Dispute: Iran and the UAE have a long-standing territorial dispute over three strategically located islands (Abu Musa, Lesser Tunb, Greater Tunb) in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane for global oil and gas [21:00, 21:07]. The GCC supports Emirati claims, while Iran asserts absolute sovereignty [21:14].
• Israel Ties: The UAE became a signatory of the US-brokered Abraham Accords in 2020, normalizing ties with Israel. This move "triggered Iran's ire" and created tensions, even as Abu Dhabi tried to maintain open channels with Tehran to prevent escalation [21:36, 21:44].
• 2026 Hostilities (Hypothetical): In the hypothetical scenario of February 2026, Iranian missile and drone strikes targeted multiple Gulf countries, including the UAE, as well as US bases and diplomatic sites. These attacks caused fatalities, injuries, and significant damage to civilian infrastructure [21:50, 21:59, 22:00, 22:06, 22:09].
• Dependability Score: Despite pragmatic economic ties, the UAE's strong security alliances and vulnerability to Iranian aggression limit its willingness to openly support Iran. (3/10) [22:13, 22:15].

Qatar: Cautious Mediator (Score: 4/10) [22:19]

Qatar, though a Sunni-majority nation, has developed a relatively favorable and often mediating relationship with Iran, driven by shared economic interests and a desire for regional stability.

• Shared Gas Field: Qatar and Iran share the world's largest natural gas field (North Dome/South Pars), which is a vital source of revenue for both nations and necessitates a degree of practical coexistence, even during political tensions [22:28, 22:37].
• Mediating Role: Qatar actively positions itself as a mediator and communications channel in regional disputes, often lacking good relations with Israel [23:10, 23:14]. It played a significant role in a 2023 US-Iran prisoner exchange, handling the transfer of frozen Iranian funds and detainees [23:15, 23:22].
• Wariness of Iran: Despite its mediating efforts, Qatar is wary of Iran's military capabilities, especially its missile arsenal. The presence of US military bases (like Al Udeid) on Qatari soil makes it a primary target in any regional escalation [23:28, 23:38].
• 2026 Hostilities (Hypothetical): In the hypothetical scenario, Qatari territory was also targeted by Iranian missile and drone attacks alongside other Gulf states and US bases [21:59, 24:01].
• Dependability Score: While not openly hostile, Qatar's cautious approach to regional politics and its reliance on US security guarantees limit its active support for Iran. (4/10) [24:11, 24:12].

Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan: The Eastern Neighbors [24:15]

Iran's eastern neighbors present diverse relationships, ranging from insular neutrality to active friction.

• 1. Turkmenistan: Insular Dictatorship (Score: 1/10) [24:37]
  • Shared Border & Trade: Turkmenistan shares a long border with Iran and has strong trade relations, particularly in oil and natural gas, including the Kopet Dag gas pipeline [24:38, 25:03].
  • Permanent Neutrality: As a totalitarian dictatorship, Turkmenistan adopted a UN-recognized status of permanent neutrality in 1995, mandating avoidance of military alliances and non-interference in conflicts [24:42, 25:40, 25:56].
  • Limited Usefulness: Due to its isolationist nature, Turkmenistan is of little practical use as an ally for Iran beyond economic transactions [25:35].
  • Dependability Score: 1/10 for dependability [26:15].
• 2. Afghanistan: Troubled Relations (Score: 0/10) [26:17]
  • Desert Border: Afghanistan shares a long, mostly desert and marshland border with Iran [26:20].
  • Sunni Majority, Shia Minority: Afghanistan is predominantly Sunni (85%) but hosts the Hazaras, a large, persecuted Shia minority [26:36, 26:39, 26:44].
  • Water Disputes: Long-standing water disputes over the Helmand River have led to armed friction between Iran and the Taliban-led Afghan government, including clashes in May 2023 [27:10, 27:18].
  • Narcotics Trade: The Afghan-Iranian border is a major route for narcotics, leading to cyclical crackdowns and violence [27:28].
  • Migrant Community: Iran hosts millions of Afghan refugees, who serve as an important economic crutch but are also vulnerable to political instability between the two nations [26:54, 26:59].
  • Dependability Score: Afghanistan is unlikely to be an active ally due to its internal dynamics and the Taliban's limited diplomatic weight (0/10) [27:48].
• 3. Pakistan: Frictional Ties (Score: 2/10) [27:50]
  • Sunni Majority, Sectarian Divides: Pakistan is a Sunni-majority nation with significant Shia-Sunni sectarian divides [27:52].
  • International Alliances: Pakistan has close diplomatic ties with the United States and Saudi Arabia [28:00].
  • Border Attacks: In January 2024, Iran launched missile and drone strikes against a Sunni militant group within Pakistani Balochistan, leading to Pakistani retaliation, creating a brief but alarming escalation cycle [28:11, 28:25].
  • Mutual Accusations: Iran has accused Pakistan of backing Shia groups, and Pakistan has accused Iran of backing Shia groups on its territory [28:38, 28:41].
  • Dependability Score: Pakistan is unlikely to be an active ally given its internal and external dynamics (2/10) [28:47].

Kuwait and Bahrain: Vulnerable Gulf States [28:52]

These small Gulf nations, geographically close to Iran, navigate a delicate balance between powerful neighbors and global alliances.

• Kuwait: Caught in the Middle (Score: 2/10) [28:54]
  • Avoids Drama: Kuwait is a small state that generally tries to avoid regional drama but is geographically close to Iran [28:55].
  • International Alliances: It is a member of the GCC and hosts Western military sites, though it tries to avoid being an outspoken anti-Iran mouthpiece [29:04, 29:07].
  • Shifting Relations: Kuwait initially sided with Iran during the Saddam Hussein era but relations soured with the rise of hardline Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2005 [29:17, 29:30].
  • Economic & Humanitarian Ties: Despite political tensions, Kuwait pursued economic development ties with Iran (including the Silk City project) and provided humanitarian aid during the COVID-19 pandemic [29:58, 30:07].
  • Resource Disputes: Relations were strained over the Dorra/Arash gas field, with Iran declaring a Saudi-Kuwaiti development agreement illegal [30:15].
  • 2026 Hostilities (Hypothetical): In the hypothetical scenario, Kuwait was among the Gulf states bombed by Iranian missiles and drones, with strikes hitting US airbases and Kuwait International Airport [30:51, 30:55].
  • Dependability Score: Kuwait would offer limited, if any, support to Iran (2/10) [31:04].
• Bahrain: US Naval Host & Israel Ally (Score: 0/10) [31:05]
  • Small Island Nation: Bahrain is a small island nation in the Gulf [31:07].
  • Disputed Shia Majority: It has a disputed Shia majority but is ruled by the Sunni House of Khalifa, which has close ties with the US and Saudi Arabia [31:22, 31:33, 31:37].
  • US Fifth Fleet: Crucially, Bahrain hosts the US Navy's Fifth Fleet, a major sore point for Iran due to its permanent presence less than 200 kilometers from Iran's shoreline [31:54, 32:03].
  • Iranian Interference: The Bahraini government has long accused Iran of incitement and interference in its internal affairs, while Iran portrays itself as a patron of the regional Shia population [31:41, 31:51].
  • Abraham Accords: Bahrain became a signatory of the US-brokered Abraham Accords in 2020, normalizing ties with Israel. This move was particularly "stinging" for Iran given Bahrain's significant Shia population [32:43, 32:50].
  • 2026 Hostilities (Hypothetical): In the hypothetical scenario, Bahrain was also bombed by Iranian missiles and drones [33:08].
  • Dependability Score: Given its strong alliances and vulnerability, Bahrain would offer no support to Iran (0/10) [33:13, 33:14].

Iraq: Unreliable Ally (Score: 6/10) [33:17]

Iraq, Iran's closest western neighbor, is a Shia-majority nation that, while theoretically an ally, presents a complex and often unreliable partnership due to historical baggage and internal dynamics.

• Shia Majority: With about 55% Shia population, Iraq is the final country in Iran's immediate orbit with a co-religionist majority population [33:29, 33:34].
• Historical Hostility: Under Saddam Hussein, Iran and Iraq were engaged in a hopeless conflict [33:51, 34:00]. Saddam's Ba'athist regime viewed Iran's revolutionary ideology as a threat and sought regional dominance, leading to the devastating Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988) [34:11, 34:19].
• Post-Saddam Influence: Since Saddam's fall in 2003, Iran has built deep ties with Iraqi Shia parties and militias, treating Iraq as a strategic buffer zone and a corridor to Syria and Lebanon [34:47, 34:50, 35:09].
  • PMF Influence: Iran's most effective instruments in Iraq remain the militias under its influence, generally grouped under the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) [35:09, 35:14, 35:19].
  • US Confrontations: Iranian-backed rocket and drone attacks have repeatedly dragged Iraq into confrontations with the US [35:21, 35:29].
• Energy Dependence: Iraq's electricity grid has long depended on Iranian gas and power imports, creating a constant political trap due to US sanctions [35:31, 35:36, 35:44]. This dependence has sharpened Baghdad's incentive to move away from Iran but also heightened Iraqi anger that their daily services could be held hostage to US-Iran confrontations [35:52].
• Dependability Score: While often an ally, the relationship is recent, delicate, and subject to change. (6/10) [36:09].

Oman: The Neutral Intermediary (Score: 5/10) [38:35]

Oman stands out as a neutral country in the Gulf region, consistently acting as a dialogue partner and mediator for Iran.

• Ibadism: Oman's dominant faith is Ibadism, making it unique as it is neither Sunni nor Shia [03:19, 38:51].
• Mediation & Engagement: Oman's foreign policy is rooted in neutrality and mediation. It has historically served as an effective regional intermediary, facilitating US-Iran engagement, including the negotiations for the 2016 nuclear arms deal [38:54, 39:01, 39:05].
• Trade & Energy: Oman and Iran cooperate on various trade and energy arrangements, with a shared interest in regional stability for economic prosperity [39:21, 39:23].
• Baloch Population: Oman is home to a significant Baloch population (around 1 million), representing about a quarter of its inhabitants [39:34, 39:35].
• Prioritizing Stability: Oman prioritizes regional stability and regime security, consciously avoiding entanglement in block politics or jeopardizing its relations with other Gulf states or Western partners [39:45, 39:48, 39:50, 39:56].
• Dependability Score: Oman is seen as occupying a middle ground in the region's complex dynamics. (5/10) [39:58, 40:00].